GDP: 2025-2026 Updates
The U.S. GDP forecast from EIA has been revised downwards from the April Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO). EIA now assumes real GDP will grow by 1.5% in 2025, a 0.5 point reduction from the April STEO, and 1.6% in 2026.
The GDPNow estimate from the Atlanta Fed for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 was 2.3% on May 8, up from 2.2% on May 6.
Looking ahead, The Conference Board projects economic growth of 1.7% in 2026. EIA sees it at 1.6% in 2026, a 0.4 point reduction from last month.
The Peterson Institute for International Economics predicts the US economy to slow through the remainder of 2025 with annualized growth falling to 0.1% and a 40% probability of a recession over the next 12 months.
For more: https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2025/us-economy-expected-stall-policy-changes-weigh-growth
